Operation Protective Edge: Day 17

As the current conflagration between Israel and Hamas enters its 18th day, things are still just as uncertain as ever with no obvious clear end in sight. The muted optimism that was apparent briefly yesterday after talks of another ceasefire proposal had intensified has now all but disappeared. Following a relatively quiet night on both sides, rocket fire on Tel Aviv resumed this morning with two heavy barrages directed at the city and other areas in Gush Dan and central Israel.

Later last night, Khaled Mashaal's defiant speech from Qatar further reinforced the fact that Hamas has no intention of wavering at this stage from their core demands. Given the unwillingness of the Hamas leadership to compromise, it is clear that this is something the Israeli government will not be able to accept. Any demand to lift the siege on Gaza without a concrete agreement in place to demilitarize the strip is a demand not even worth considering from the Israeli perspective. As long as Hamas continues to advance their terror infrastructure in Gaza with increased long range rocket development and an underground tunnel network for smuggling weapons and launching attacks into Israel, it seems no agreement will be in the cards for the foreseeable future. Factor in Hamas' additional key demand for the release of prisoners from the Gilad Shalit deal who have since been rearrested by Israel, as well as their insistence that Israel carry out the final unilateral prisoner release of hundreds of convicted Palestinian terrorists, it's hard to see how things will move forward without these demands being dropped and without serious concessions from the Hamas side.

An IAF chopper lands in support of troops on the ground. IsraelHatzolah

Meanwhile though, despite taking heavy casualties only a few days ago in the Hamas stronghold of Shuja'iya in eastern Gaza, the IDF has begun to turn the table and is now said to be in nearly full control of the area. Additionally, the confirmation of surrendering Hamas fighters to IDF forces could already be a tell tale sign that the morale of the fighting units in Gaza may indeed be slipping. With the reduction in overall rocket fire from Gaza into Israel already dropping significantly since the beginning of the IDF ground operation, Hamas may be conserving their stockpiles, however, it's apparent that their arsenal has been severely damaged by IDF ground and air operations. The Israeli leadership is once again at a crossroads over which direction to go in next.

IDF soldiers uncover another Hamas terror tunnel in Gaza. Israel Hatzolah

In the absence of any new diplomatic developments or breakthrough, the first primary act on the Israeli end would be to complete the current objective and to destroy and dismantle Hamas' remaining tunnel infrastructure. This may take an additional week or so to complete, per IDF estimates. However, there exists a finite ending period for this specific mission. If Hamas has yet to capitulate and still is maintaining the capacity to launch rockets deep into Israel, the IDF will then be forced to make another more difficult decision. This mainly being whether to hold their current battle lines, or to seek to deliver the Hamas leadership in Gaza a final devastating blow by attempting to conquer the entire Gaza Strip and remove the Hamas military threat entirely. Clearly, this would be a very large scale next step that would have the potential to be extremely costly on both sides. With international pressure increasing by the day, it seems like it might just end up being a question of who blinks first.